Discussion in 'Fantasy / Horror' started by nquixote, Mar 3, 2011.
I couldn't. Thanks for the link.
Me neither. That was some good excerpt.
I realize that I am totally ... hook, line, and sinker... captivated by the story and the characters in ASoIaF so I am clearly biased but that sample was among the most enjoyable reads I've had in a while. I guess that's why I end up getting so impatient for the next book. As much as I enjoy his work I don't want Sanderson to have to finish this series too.
Well it is officially 2012. Let's hope Martin is writing as we speak
His March 1st blog update indicates that very little progress has probably been made on the new book in 2012 as well. He's currently working on 5 projects he says, one of which he definitly needs to finish before he goes to the UK in early April. The other 4 were due months ago he says, which leads one to believe that he is currently not working on Winds of Winter as that is not one of those projects due months ago.
Now on top of that, Martin's appearances page shows that his calendar until September is stuffed to the brim with trips to several conventions, a writer's workshp, trips first to Portugal and then later to Spain and then ending in Worldcon in September. Since we know GRRM does not write away from home at all, that is pretty much a guarantee of as good as zero progress on the new book for spring and summer.
After that his plate looks clean at last for some writing, nothing scheduled at this point until March, although that is deceptive. We know GRRM has complained that he didn't get to attend the shooting of season 2 of Game of Thrones due to his busy 2011 and that he intends to remedy that next time around, so trips to Europe in the Fall are very likely I would say.
So yeah. This one is a long, long way off indeed. If you would make the reasonable but very optimistic assumption that writing this book is going to take two years of good writing at the very least, you'd be looking at Late 2014 for the novel's completion, and thus a 2015 publication at the very best. Especially considering that this is going to be a (very) large book that puts all the POV's back together in one book again, a feat not pulled off in more than a decade.
I know he did resume work on TWoW in January. To what extent is unknown. It also appears that at least two of these other projects he has spoken about are reliant on waiting for other people to deliver their materials (DANGEROUS WOMEN and THE WORLD OF ICE AND FIRE), and a third (THE LANDS OF ICE AND FIRE) was fact-checking. So the only writing gig taking potential time out from TWoW has been the new Dunk and Egg story.
Having said that, I do not believe TWoW will arrive before the final few months of 2015 at the earliest, and certainly wouldn't be looking out for it seriously before 2015.
What about the show? Isn't there a certain pace he needs to meet to get the books out in time to keep from delaying the seasons on the show?
HBO won't wait for him. If the show makes it that far then it will spoil the main points of the series, since GRRM gave them a rough summary of what happens.
Nope. If this was an issue, HBO would never have started the show when they did. If HBO overtakes him, they overtake him and we will see the end of ASoIaF on screen potentially years before GRRM produces the final novel. GRRM has already given them outlines and notes towards this end.
Some fans aren't happy about this, but others are since it means we will - assuming the show gets that far - see how the story ends in potentially another five to six years from now, whilst waiting for the books could take considerably longer.
That said, whilst we will get a TV ending that likely reflects the broad path GRRM will take in the books, a lot of the specifics will be different. There are storylines and characters in the books that are not in the TV series and won't be introduced in it that GRRM will need to address in the books.
This makes me think GRRM and HBO could potentially get together and decide to make seperate endings. One that plays better on the show, the other being some crazy insane epic GRRM masterpiece.
They could do. The variances between the TV show and book are relatively modest so far, but the butterfly effect means that all these small changes will gather strength and cumulatively make the TV show rather different to the books by the later seasons. Even GRRM has said he expects this to happen.
I have to admit that during several interviews last year when GRRM was doing the book tours, GRRM admitted that he was well aware of the pressure of the HBO series catching up with him. It did make me think that he would try and write Winds at a speed which would allow him to publish that book in 2014 or so, and then he would have two more years to deliver the final book. That already seem pretty steep of course, but not totally out of the question.
But I have to say that everything I have seen since then bears out what is posted above, namely that the HBO series will overtake him in just a few years and that yes, we will see the ending on screen. And also, that George seems to have accepted that, because he is by all means not giving off the impression that finishing Winds of Winter is his main priority, and it certainly hasn't seemed like that since ADWD was published. He probably knows the series will overtake him and had thus decided to write Winds at his own pace, in his own time.
That leaves me a bit ambiguous. On the plus side I am keen to see the show do well, it seems a third season is already being considered and it looks now as if the show could go on for years. I'm also very doubtful about the publication of book 6, but mostly, I do not foresee yet another large book after that. So even if it is abbreviated and wildly shortchanged, HBO will give us an end at least. If HBO keeps faith with the show of course. HBO is our best chance of seeing how it's all supposed to end. And certainly the fastest way of finding that out.
2013: Season 3- ASOS
2014: Season 4- AFFC/ADWD Part 1
2015: Season 5- AFFC/ ADWD part 2
We could imagine that Winds of Winter might be published this year. That would make it just in time for:
2016: Season 6
2017: Season 7
Even if GRRM's idea that somewhere a book will be split into two seasons is correct, which many don't think will happen anyway, he is still not going to have that final book finished in time.
Conversely, who's to say that AFFC and ADWD won't be shown as a single season? The sheer size of the two books combined says no, but the storylines say yes. Chronologically, is it interesting to have part 1 of AFFC and part 1 of ADWD as a separate season, does enough happen for that to be interesting as a plot in it's own right, on a tv show?
ASoS will be two seasons, with Season 3 ending with:
The Red Wedding
I suspect that Season 4 will be the second half of ASoS but bringing some elements from early AFFC/ADWD in as well. Maybe they could fit the rest of the salient points of AFFC and ADWD into just one season:
And they've said they're already thinking on how to handle ADWD, with them definitely going to follow Jorah's storyline in ADWD apparently.
But that would be a tough call.
Several recent interviews have suggested that the producers are thinking of eight seasons of ten episodes each as the ideal length for the whole series. From that I think that we can expect a significant deviation from the books, since I suspect Books 6 and 7 will have to be in the ASoS/ADWD size bracket to fit everything in, and that's assuming the series will not expand again (which I certainly wouldn't rule out). HBO certainly won't be turning ASoS, ADWD, TWoW and ADoS all into two seasons each, so that means a fair amount of trimming of the plot will take place.
I know some of you have been reading the series for 5, 10, 15 years and I only started a few months ago, so you have been through years of waiting for books already, but this is VERY disheartening. I had expected GRRM to pick up the pace due to the show and all this confirmation that he apparently is still going to take his sweet time (4-5 years a book, even though it still might expand to 8-9 books) leaves me baffled. If he really does this I do not expect him to be alive to see the completion of ASoIaF. He is 63 years old and potentially looking at being 75-85 when he completes ASoIaF.
I felt so bad reading the AFFC thread. The majority of the 23 or so pages (the ones in 2005) had people hoping for ADWD to release in one year...ouch. Looks like we will see this happen a few more times. Just not with any expectation of a book per year or two. One of you in one of these recent posts mentioned how hard it will be to combine all the characters and plotlines of AFFC and ADWD back into one book for TWOW and how long it could make the book. I had not thought of this before since I was too eager to jump on the Now-That-GRRM-Is-Past-The-Knots-In-The-Plot-It-Will-Be-A-Breeze Wagon. That could definitely take 5 years if he only works on TWOW a little here and there.
I don't anticipate TWoW taking 6 years to come out like ADWD, but 4 years is likely. He had to delay the writing of TWoW for six months after finishing ADWD to do promo work for ADWD and the TV series and to finish off a whole raft of other projects (some of which are still not delivered, though he has resumed working on TWOW now).
In the past his side-project work has been more trivial, but from his recent posts it sounds like it has become much bigger (especially an apparently near-constant stream of requests for interviews and publicity appearances) due to the success of the TV show. I wonder if he will consider taking a different approach for TWoW (i.e. if it is the penultimate book, it might be worth considering not doing a signing tour for it and just plowing straight into ADoS).
4 years is certainly better than 6. I wish he would write while he travels. Does anyone know why he doesn't?
Here's to ADoS by 2018
The simple reason: probably because it doesn't work for him that way. Frankly, I'm not going to argue.
Considering the quality of the books, I can't argue either.
He uses an ancient (early 1980s) Apple Mac with likewise ancient software (WordStar, I believe). Theoretically this could be put onto a laptop, but GRRM prefers to use his own old and borderline steam-powered computer. He also has a whole non-portable library of books on medieval technology, foodstuffs, heraldry and traditions which he refers to constantly whilst writing ASoIaF.
Old school! I love it. Maybe he's also a little superstitious. An "If it worked before, why change it" type thing.
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