Tolkien's works have stood the test of time. Just the fact that they are debated today means something.
Would we be without the movies? I'm sure there would still be debate but not as much. Talk of Tolkiens influrence was fading away imo before the movies. They revived the debate along with his sales. Would be interesting to see his sales figures up untill the movies were announced and those after it.
I think a lot of things regarding "popularity" are rather cylical in nature. Remeber the Rankin Bass production of
The Hobbit and
The Return of the King? Or the other animated version of the first part of
The Lord of the Rings? It was the seventies animated version of
The Hobbit that first introduced me to Tolkien's stories.
Yes, the Peter Jackson movies undoubtedly helped boost the "popularity" of Tolkien's works, and helped introduce the books to a whole new generation, but that doesn't mean that the works would have been relegated to obscurity if the movies had never been made. Obviously there wouldn't have
been Lord of the Rings movies without Tolkien's work to begin with - and such an ambitious project would probably not have been attempted or funded if the material was destined for eventual, inevitable obscurity.
How many different printings has there been now of
The Hobbit and
The Lord of the Rings? Lots I would say.
The Hobbit was first published in 1937,
The Lord of the Rings in 1954 and 1955.
Keep in mind that Tolkien did influence pop culture in many ways - "Frodo Lives" as a slogan, and the undeniable influence on gaming through Dungeons & Dragons and then the Middle Earth Role Playing Game. I actually have a few solo Middle Earth Role Playing game books from the eighties. (And I still have my Disneyland record of the Rankin Bass Hobbit, too.)
Just because Tolkien's works may have ceased to be "chic" for a while doesn't mean his influence was necessarily dying. I think, after the bombardment of "Tolkienesque" fantasy, there was a reaction against thing "Tolkien" (and there may still be in some ways).
I, for one, am a writer who proudly states that Tolkien was a huge influence on me. I read other fantasy stories and played fantasy role-playing games because Tolkien first stirred my interest in the genre. I write fantasy because of him. Surely I can't be the only fantasy writer/poet who was strongly influenced by Tolkien's works.
And interesting side note: how many people are familiar with the word
orc? Tolkien dredged up an extremely obscure Old English name and vague reference to an evil spirit or bogey and turned it into one of the standard evil beings of fantasy. How many people fought hordes of orcs on a Saturday afternoon, hoping for a roll of 20 against the tough orc captain? The name has been used in several games.
Even if the talk about Tolkien's influence died down a bit prior to the Jackson movies, it doesn't mean that the influence wasn't still there.