I think the questin is would Speaker for the Dead won had not people been voting madly for it to stop Elron Hubbard winning with a Scientology bloc-vote, which would have destroyed the award's credibility for all time.
Well that's an interesting point, didn't know that. Special circumstances can make a difference perhaps. And so maybe Gaiman being Guest of Honor at WorldCon -- which at all accounts he performed pretty well -- did effect the voting, maybe not. I was very surprised that Anathem didn't win, because it was the most talked about book and had the biggest impact on the field overall. But it may be that there were quite a few people who really didn't like Anathem or Stephenson's mammoth style these days. I think Gaiman, Scalzi and Doctorow were actually hurt by being nominated for YA books and the increasing whining over YA books having anything to do with adult stories, as well as many fans not reading YA books, and I think Stross' book being satiric pulp homage hurt its chances too.
I'm kind of torn over Durham winning the Campbell also. He's not exactly a new writer, having had a very successful career as a historical fiction writer. While he is at all accounts an excellent writer, Acacia sold well enough that it didn't need the bump. I've heard a lot of praise for Felix Gilman and Tony Pi.
I don't agree with Roberts that the Hugos should be solely about weird experimentation as decided by him.

But I do think its great when the Hugos -- the fans -- promote new talent. So as much as I love Nancy Kress and feel she should be a much bigger bestseller than she is, etc., it would be nice to see a newer name win. But that's just my personal preference, and I can't really argue against giving a Hugo to Nancy Kress or Ted Chiang, etc.
Again, my personal preferences, I don't see fiction as a blood sport. So what I really liked about this year's Hugos is how much respect was shown among the nominees for each other -- Scalzi making that big Hugo packet of everybody he could manage, Gaiman saying it should have gone to Stephenson. Scalzi pulled himself out of the running for the fan writing award, and David Hartwell says he wants to give other people a turn to win his Hugo category, etc. That says to me that the field is very healthy and open to new ideas, rather than shouting them down.
So once again, I think Roberts is completely wrong.

Scratch that, I don't think Roberts is completely wrong in advocating books. I think his viewpoint about the field is wrong.