They think it is a zero sum game for two reasons: 1) Because adult category fantasy and SF are produced by the same publishers for the most part. Fantasy is doing better, SF feels like the neglected sibling who may get kicked out; 2) the persistent belief that fiction is Darwinian with titles and genres competing against each other for a finite audience and shelf space (a zero sum game.) In reality, the fiction market is symbiotic and requires variety to grow. It is very hard for die-hard SF fans to accept that fantasy's success actually shuffles readers and industry interest into SF. That's one of the reasons YA SF has taken off in recent years. The idea that fantasy destroys SF seems to be ingrained in a large chunk of the SF audience.
basically *one* SF novel in the top 100 (and it barely scraped in), and 5 in total in the top 150. Two of those by very well-established authors (Stephenson and Card), three of those media tie-ins. Fantasy? Already starting with Stephenie Meyer at number 3... Make no mistake: fantasy is selling better than SF, *much* better. Look at the 2010 catalogs of genre publishers, from Tor to Pyr: all predominantly fantasy titles.
This is from de Vries? quoted in Neal's blog. And it makes me giggle. Twenty-five years ago, getting one SF novel in the top 100 main bestsellers of a year would be seen as doing really well, and same for fantasy. And media tie-ins were just really getting going. Fifteen years ago, it would have been seen as doing okay. Now, it's insufficient and a crisis. I see that as progress.
Yes, there are still a lot more fantasy bestsellers than SF ones. But what happens with these numbers is a bit of deceptive shuffling. For instance, people who make the complaint tend to add non-category fantasy bestsellers sold in the general market as category fantasy bestsellers -- as evidence of fantasy's great strides over SF. And since this includes the fantasy romance novels as well, that's quite a pool. But non-category SF bestsellers -- The Road, The Yiddish Policemen's Union, Oryx & Crake, etc., -- they don't get counted as category SF bestsellers. Saying that there are only five SF novels in the top 150 of 2008? I'm guessing they didn't count all the SF. Making the division gets complicated anyway. Susannah Clarke's Jonathan Strange & Mr. Norrell was originally sold out of category in general fiction and was a bestseller. Count it as category fantasy's pot or no?
And then there's the YA/children's market. They don't have a category fantasy market. SFF is not separate from non-SFF in children's and YA. So if you're going to count the YA/children's bestsellers that are SFF, if you are going to count Stephenie Meyer's Twilight series -- which is YA -- and J.K. Rowling's last Harry Potter -- which is YA -- then you also have to count the YA SF bestsellers -- Westerfeld's The Uglies, James Patterson's Maximum Ride, Doctorow's Little Brother, etc. Yes, there are more fantasy bestsellers in the youth market than SF, but that's always been the case as fantasy dominates the youth field. The increase in youth SF and its sales is significant.
Yes, Meyer and Rowling are phenoms, with sales beyond anybody else's, but they're phenoms compared to thrillers, romances, and other types of fiction too. When John Grisham was the phenom, his legal thrillers were not SFF, but they did not crush either the fantasy or SF category markets, nor drive such books out of the general fiction market. And we've had SF phenoms -- Michael Crichton and Dan Brown. Brown's Angels and Demons is a SF technothriller involving an anti-matter invention, and the rest of the series -- Da Vinci Code and Symbol -- is nominally SF. They don't get counted, disparaged as not real SF, whereas two YA novelists get counted as adult category fantasy stars. And Meyer's adult novel, also a runaway bestseller, The Host, was SF in 2008 and is part of a new series, getting made into a movie, etc., but no one wants to count that either, of course.
So the numbers getting thrown about aren't that accurate. If you look at all bestselling SFF titles together, category and non-category, including media tie-ins, they currently make up anywhere from 20%-30% of the adult fiction lists, hardcover, trade paper and mass market, on a given week (U.S.) Of that percentage, about 5-8% is SF. In the youth market, SFF makes up fifty percent or more of the bestsellers, with SF running about 20% of that. To put that in perspective, twenty-five years ago, all the SFF bestsellers, category and non-category, including media tie-ins, would have made up about 5% of the adult bestseller lists, with SF making up maybe half of that or two thirds. In the youth market, they often stopped having bestseller lists, but in terms of actual sales SFF would still be about half of the market, because of fantasy's dominance, and SF would have made up about 5% of that.
So SF has actually had a small but significant gain in big bestsellers in the adult market and a substantial gain in the youth market, mostly in this last decade. Fantasy has more titles in the youth market because the youth market expanded, and it had a spectacular gain in the adult market. But a chunk of that gain was fueled by two YA authors -- Rowling and then Meyers -- who crashed onto the adult lists, so much so that publishers pressured the New York Times to re-start its children's list so that Harry Potter would be contained (which didn't really work, but did help out the youth market.) In comparison, the dominance of suspense fiction on the bestseller lists shrunk. They lost ground -- if you want to look it at like a war, which it isn't -- to contemporary fiction and fantasy. Romance lost dominance also, but has begun to reclaim it, in part by embracing fantasy romance.
And the amount of non-category SF has increased -- not just the "literary" SF, SF thrillers are rampant. (Mark sees this as a problem for category SF, but he doesn't see the huge amount of non-category fantasy and fantasy romance as a problem for category fantasy, which I find a bit weird, because the non-category fantasy contingent is one of the main reasons booksellers are very happy with the whole fantasy genre.) Which is why many of the SFF publishers have increased the amount of SF titles they have on their lists, not decreased, and are also reprinting classic works like mad (in hopes also of film deals.) Yes, Pyr has shifted more towards fantasy. Pyr is a medium-sized company owned by a game firm. They need cash. Anders has had a lot of luck with importing British SFF to the U.S. But the big British SF writers are bought up by the bigger houses. It's easier for him to snag the up and coming British fantasy writers like Joe Abercrombie.
Tor UK, we've been told, actually has more SF on its list than fantasy. Tor U.S. got its start in fantasy -- fantasy is always going to be dominant on their lists, it's not a new thing. They have a growing YA program that includes both SF and fantasy. And Tor also publishes paranormal romance, which gets sold in horror, SFF, romance and general fiction sections of bookstores. Are all the publishers, SFF and romance, starting to do more SF romance titles? Yes, they are. And if romance thinks that's a good thing, there's money there.
The screeching about paranormal romance and urban fantasy taking everything over just kills me. In 2003, there were two rising contemporary fantasy stars -- Neil Gaiman and Laurell K. Hamilton, older authors like Tim Powers were getting more attention and the publishers were putting more contemporary fantasy titles on their list. Charlaine Harris, a mystery writer, had a fantasy mystery series published in general fiction and it had built an audience and was starting to get a lot of attention. Ditto Jim Butcher. Plus, there was a revival in horror, which always increases the interest in dark fantasy, part of which is always contemporary setting, as is most of horror. So it was obvious that contemporary fantasy was going to expand and get more stars, but again and again I ran into the opinion that contemporary fantasy wasn't even real fantasy and certainly didn't count while alternate world fantasy would rule all forever.
Transfer to 2005, where contemporary fantasy -- which was called everything from supernatural to New Weird before urban was renewed as the term -- was now deemed to be Godzilla. Publishers are now taking less new contemporary fantasy and the market is stuffed with titles and will likely shrink a little. There will still be new authors, further bestsellers and hopefully it will stay healthy, because that's good for SFF. But it's not going to take over because no genre or sub-genre
ever takes over. Historical fantasy is growing, more slowly, but growing. Dark fantasy/horror probably has a few more years to be a little diva. Elsewhere, we'll probably see a westerns revival in the next five years. (And yes, the return of many western romances.)
And SF is growing, slowly, unsteadily, but growing, especially in the youth market. Its new acquisitions are financed by fantasy's dollars. If Hollywood comes to play, the growth will increase. You weigh all that against one front table in one chain store in Britain, and, well, I'm not too worried.
(Apologies for the long wind -- happy New Year!)