Back in the 1950s, 1960s and even 1970s, we were promised flying cars. (Actually, Popular Mechanics has one on the cover every year or so today.) Everybody would have one or more in their garage and we’d never cuss at traffic again. Well, where the [bleep] are they? Perhaps more importantly, why didn’t we get them?
Before I get too far into this, I should note that the co-founder of Google, Larry Page, is alleged to have a company working on just this project – a company he’s dumped 100 million of his own dollars in so far. We don’t know what, if anything, Page’s money hath wrought. Still, it’s clear that many people have tried to build such a vehicle. So why don’t I have one in my garage? I would argue there are three specific economic reasons.
The first reason is a concept called barrier to entry. The area we’ve seen the most technology growth in the past 30 years has been computing. This is because the field has low barriers to entry. Simply put, a couple of people working in somebody’s garage or basement can crank out a product and make enough money to operate.
Not so with flying cars. One needs to build and fly multiple expensive prototypes to convince the FAA and the public that your vehicle works, then one needs a factory to crank out a bunch of them. This means a lot of money and time upfront before any sales. It’s a risky investment, and many flying car companies simply run out of money.
The second economic issue is what the late writer Nick Pollotta called “the fork problem.” Imagine you invented a fork that could warn you if your food was unsafe. Great, huh? Except you’re competing against regular forks, a technology that’s intuitive to operate, dead reliable and if it does break cheap enough to toss and get a new one.
Those flying cars that have actually flown are usually several times more expensive than regular cars, and many of the designs require runways which may not be available. Nor have flying cars yet proved as capable in bad weather as ground cars. “Boss, I can’t come into work today, icing conditions,” might work in Miami but won’t in Chicago. (Trust me on that.)
Lastly, market share. So far, all flying cars have required a private pilot’s license to operate. Just under 600,000 people in the US have such a license, as compared to 214 million with drivers licenses. In other words, one spends a lot of money to chase a tiny market.
Perhaps ironically, the one thing nobody really saw in the 1950s and 1960s, micro-computing, may be the answer to that problem. It is, however, not without risks. “Look, Ma, no hands (and no pilot’s license)!” sounds great until you’re the person climbing in some new contraption. The automation has to work, no reboots required.
This is not to say flying cars will never darken the skies over you. It is to say that those predicting them did not think through how real-world economics behaves.
When Chris Gerrib isn’t thinking about flying cars, he’s writing novels about Mars. The Mars Run and Pirates of Mars, book 1 and 2 of his Pirates trilogy, are out now, and Book 3, The Night Watch, will be released soon. Chris is old-school and blogs on LiveJournal.
