How old will you be when the last ASOIAF novel comes out?

[goodboot]

ill be 27. i shouldn't say this, but im going to: some of you are almost old enough to be my parents. there. im sorry, fellow posters, but i couldn't resist.

 

[goodboot]

this just occurred to me. we're all wondering how old we'll be at the close of this series, but does anybody know how old george will be? is he gonna make it? god, i hope so.

 

[nick1689]

this just occurred to me. we're all wondering how old we'll be at the close of this series, but does anybody know how old george will be? is he gonna make it? god, i hope so.

That is a good question... Anyone know?

 

[Icewind]

He's somewhere in his late fifties now i wanna say 58 or 59, but im not 100% certain. So he'll most likely be pushin seventy when the series ends.

 

[Yobmod]

GRRM is 60 this year.
And life expentancy for men in the US is 75 years.

So he should live to finish the series at least, assuming ADoD coming out 2009, and 3 years each for the next 2 books. But it's a close call - he doesn't look like the healthiest guy around....

 

[brewcrew]

I'll just be happy if it is finished by 2015

in 2015 I'll be 38.

Close circuit to cheese---> my wife was in the Jet program for a year and still has friends from the experience. She lived on the island of Hokkaido and loved it. My wife is a teacher now and it is a very good thing to have on your resume.

 

[Syrio]

26, doesn't seem too bad...

 

[Zee]

Considering the world is supposed to end in 2012, we probably won't get to the end of this tale.










Ok, realistically, given how much time he's taken between AFFC and ADWD, I'll say that from the time it takes him to release ADWD he'll write the next 2 books in 10 years. So, if ADWD comes out in 2009, then the series will be complete in 2019 and I'll be 50. Holy crap.

 

[vbfischer]

I know I'll be older than I am today...

I think the delay between aFFC and aDWD was a fluke... But if the 2019 year in the post above me is correct.. I"ll be... 51.

 

[Grey Sea]

2015? I'll be 52. Does that make me the "old man"?

 

[DwarfsTongue]

In 2015 I will be 48 But most likely be in me 50s by the time the series is finished.

Assuming it gets finished

 

[kron]

I think the problem is not how old we will be but how old HE will be 'coz I'm afraid he will pass away before that

 

[Werthead]

I think the problem is not how old we will be but how old HE will be 'coz I'm afraid he will pass away before that

Why would you assume this?

GRRM's favourite author is Jack Vance. Jack is also a big guy. He is also 93 years old and still going strong, and published his last novel a couple of years ago.

 

[kron]

Why would you assume this?

GRRM's favourite author is Jack Vance. Jack is also a big guy. He is also 93 years old and still going strong, and published his last novel a couple of years ago.

Jack Vance seems to have continued writing while Martin has obviously stopped... or at least has stopped doing it on a regular basis. I wouldn't put my money on ever seeing the last page of that series.

 

[Werthead]

Jack Vance seems to have continued writing while Martin has obviously stopped... or at least has stopped doing it on a regular basis. I wouldn't put my money on ever seeing the last page of that series.

Except he hasn't stopped writing

It has been pointed out to me that the actual average writing time for each book in A Song of Ice and Fire has evened out at between 3 and 4 years, and the only one to fall outside that period is ASoS at 2 years. The book that took the longest to write was actually AGoT, at over 5 years.

When this is taken into consideration these complaints about GRRM not writing or not working seem even more baseless.

 

[Luonas]

Part of the reason seems to be(imo) that the general fanbase(the one that is online of course) for ASoIaF seems to be pretty "intense". Both concerning ASoIaF and other fantasy writers.

Of course, this a extremly approximated opinion but I do think there is some truth in that.

 

[Dyloot]

Except he hasn't stopped writing

It has been pointed out to me that the actual average writing time for each book in A Song of Ice and Fire has evened out at between 3 and 4 years, and the only one to fall outside that period is ASoS at 2 years. The book that took the longest to write was actually AGoT, at over 5 years.

When this is taken into consideration these complaints about GRRM not writing or not working seem even more baseless.

Eh?

A Game of Thrones - August 1996
A Clash of Kings - November 1998
A Storm of Swords - August 2000
A Feast for Crows - October 2005

His post on May of 2005 about Dance With Dragons:

As for me, I am getting back to work. There's good news on that front too -- A DANCE WITH DRAGONS is half-done!!!

And we think, excellent news, GRRM! Can't wait! And then there was his statement in January of 2006:

As of this writing, A DANCE WITH DRAGONS consists of some twenty-two finished chapters totalling 542 manuscript pages, plus another 100 to 150 pages of partial chapters, early drafts, scenes, and fragments. Some of that material will need to be revised, and of course much more remains to be written. My hope is to bring the book in at around 1200 to 1300 pages.

And we think, OK man, the writing is going slow but you're still the man! And then October of 2006

I am still hoping to be able to complete A DANCE WITH DRAGONS by the end of the year... although that will depend in large part on how well and how quickly the writing goes from here.

And we think, excellent news! End of the year! Awesome! And then February of 2007:

DANCING IN THE DARK

I finally finished A DANCE WITH DRAGONS, but my dog ate the manuscript and there was no copy, so I'm starting over.

What, you don't believe me?

Okay, okay. We don't have a dog at present, and A DANCE WITH DRAGONS is not done.

I'm still writing. Certain storylines are going well. Others, not so much, but that's what rewriting is for, yes?

I have to admit, these updates aren't working the way I hoped they would. I started them in the hopes that they would help stem the flood of emails asking about the next book. They haven't. I get just as many emails, only now they're asking about the next update. Yes, I know I said I'd have an update in "early January," and January came and went and there was no update. I can read a calendar too. The reason there was no update...

Well, the book's not done. And we've had home renovations. And the book's not done. And there's been work on other projects, on comics and The World of Ice & Fire and the games and the new Wild Cards book, Inside Straight. And there was football, and cons to attend, and a signing tour, and the holidays, and did I mention those home renovations?

The truth is, these updates do make me feel like a twelve-year old trying to explain to teacher why he isn't turning in his essay, and knowing she isn't going to buy the "dog ate my homework" ruse any more than you guys do.

The only update that I want to write is the one that says, "A DANCE WITH DRAGONS is done." That's the one you want, and that's the one that I want to write... but when the book isn't done, having to come online and say so every few months becomes a stressful and unpleasant task. I really do appreciate the fact that so many people are so eager to read the next installment in A SONG OF ICE AND FIRE and I wish I could get it to you right now, but you guys read a lot faster than I can write.

When A DANCE WITH DRAGONS is finished, I will post that news here. The moment I finish the book, I will log on and make the announcement. If this message is still here, that means the book is not done yet. Until such time as I can trumpet that news, however, this page will remain the same.

The next update will be the one that announces that the DANCE is done.

This is where many of his biggest supporters, including myself, started to falter. And then there's his last update in January 2008:

My last formal update on A DANCE WITH DRAGONS was dated February 15, 2007.

If that seems like a long time ago to you, join the queue. It seems like forever and a day to me. When I wrote that update, I was sick of writing updates. So I tried to make that last update the final update, and ended it by saying, "The next update will be the one that announces that the DANCE is done."

Like all my other predictions about this book, however, that one turned out to be wrong. Ten-and-a-half months have passed, the book is still not done, and lately my mailbox has started filling up once again with readers pointing out that my last update is ah, quite old. So in the spirit of the holiday season, I decided, well, I can't give them DANCE, but I suppose I can give them a new update and a new sample chapter.

Reinforcement that things aren't going well... and now 9 1/2 more months have passed.

Of course, Wert summed up (and even predicted) all of the discontent himself back in 2006:

Well, we've had 3 of the first 4 books in 18-24 month intervals, and may get the 5th as well. In which case, AFFC will have been an anomaly. A very annoying anomaly, but hopefully a one-off case.

The central problem with ADWD isn't the wait: potentially two years (one of which is gone already) is not a long time to wait for the book, either compared to AFFC or the rest of fantasy publishing in general, where two years for an 800+ page novel is considered average (and yes, Erikson can write faster, but frankly not as well).

Where the problem lies is that GRRM actually gave us not one, but two completion dates for ADWD and has failed to hit either one.

So here we are. I know you don't like the constant attacks on Martin's writing progress, Wert, and even moderate a forum that has banned such attacks. But I gotta say... Martin has done this to himself. He made promises, then failed to deliver, then admitted that he has a million other things going on that's stopping him from writing...

I've backed off on the negatively toward him, but let's not downplay any poster's discontent on his progress.

 

[Werthead]

Eh?

A Game of Thrones - August 1996
A Clash of Kings - November 1998
A Storm of Swords - August 2000
A Feast for Crows - October 2005

Allow me to repeat my earlier point:

The actual average writing time...

Remember a MS is turned in months, if not years, before the book is published, so the amount of time the writer has to write the book often appears skewed when you take into account the publication dates. For example, Robert Jordan is often said to have written the first 7 WoT books in less than a year each, but it was actually 5 years for Book 1 and then 12-16 months for Books 2-7 apiece. It was only because he had finished the second book before the first was even published that he managed to get a book published every 12 months until that lead-time was eaten away by the time he got to the seventh volume. Similarly, JV Jones' last novel was published 18 months after she submitted it.

With GRRM the writing times are:

AGoT: Early 1991 - Mid 1995, 4-4.5 years
ACoK: Mid 1995 - Mid 1998, 3 years
ASoS: Mid 1998 - May 2000, just under 2 years
AFFC: September 2001 - May 2005, 3.5-4 years
ADWD Mk. 2: May 2005 - December 2008?, 3.5 years (we hope)

So here we are. I know you don't like the constant attacks on Martin's writing progress, Wert, and even moderate a forum that has banned such attacks. But I gotta say... Martin has done this to himself. He made promises, then failed to deliver,

Fully accepted. This point, at least, has never been in contention, although 'promises' is a bit strong. Even the much-vaunted AFFC endpaper note did say that he 'hoped' the book would be out. But agreed that even such a mild statement seems to be much more legitimate and set in stone when it's actually printed in the back of a book rather than online. As I've said elsewhere, normally what an author says online is fairly unimportant as 90%+ of the people who buy the books won't be aware of it. Stick it in the back of the book and 100% of the audience will see it. This is precisely what I ascribe the current frustration to and it is fully understandable (well, the frustration is understandable, the personal insults and ludicrous sense of entitlement, less so).

The problem arises mainly due to the fact that the reasons for the delays - the rewrites which have been revealed online gradually over the past 3 years - are pretty damn convincing, and have been hugely strengthened by the revelation of the work-in-progress, most notably the appearance of the new versions of chapters that we had seen or heard years earlier. The stark improvement in quality of the new chapters over the old confirms GRRM's decision to delay ADWD was the correct one. And of course 90%+ of the fans haven't seen that material, so can't judge for themselves.

then admitted that he has a million other things going on that's stopping him from writing...

Actually, he's never admitted this. The number of things that have stopped him from writing on ADWD are not greater than what he was doing whilst working on AGoT, ACoK, ASoS and AFFC as well. Wild Cards? He edited three Wild Cards books whilst writing AGoT and another one whilst writing AFFC. Pretty much everything else he gets accused of is either actually being handled by 3rd parties (the TV series, the RPG, the miniatures, the world book) or stuff he wrote decades ago (Dreamsongs, Hunter's Run).

I think two things need to borne in mind and they usually aren't:

1) GRRM is well aware the a lot of people didn't like AFFC. If ADWD had been published as planned ASAP after AFFC, it is likely that the reaction would have been similar. As I understand it, that version of ADWD was a similarly background-developing book like AFFC and would possibly have been as light on incident and forward-development of the plot. Given the fact the completed material was only about 1/3 the length of AFFC (itself the shortest book in the series, although not by much) and was apparently 50% of what he thought he needed to finish the novel, it would also have been quite short less than 500 pages, which probably would have cheesed some people off as well.

2) Robert Jordan was well aware that he had made some questionable writing decisions on Crossroads of Twilight. When faced with the decision to publish or junk the whole thing and start again from scratch, he chose to publish and tough talk it out. It was the wrong decision. Twenty years from now new readers won't give a damn how long ADWD took to write, only if it was any good. Twenty years from now, CoT will still suck and the WoT will still be lessened from its existence.

So faced with the same decision, what would you do?

 

[Dyloot]

I would, most definitely, make sure the book was good.

 

[Werthead]

Are you sure you don't want me to go into the comparative analysis of the five different versions of ADWD that have, at one time or another, existed or been planned? Whilst it would probably leave you convinced that the current version of ADWD should be great, it may erode your will to live

It also factors into my contention that ADWD must be one of the most scrutinised in-production novels ever written, which in itself may be a factor. Just try doing anything you'd do normally by yourself with no-one commenting or caring, with an audience of ten thousand instead