Who will replace Goodkind and Jordan?

[ChrisW]

Well the question has been answered. Butcher did it first followed by Rothfuss. Sanderson might get there with his next one.

Always interesting to look back at these old "prediction" threads

 

[Werthead]

Agreed. Rothfuss is now up there since The Wise Man's Fear hit #1 on the NYT list. Sanderson is close with his non-WoT work and I think he'll be right up there soon (especially since he and Rothfuss have a big mutual-appreciation thing). Butcher is there already, of course.

Furthermore, contrary to some earlier opinions in the thread (including my own), even Erikson seems to be growing in sales impressively with each book (The Crippled God will apparently land fairly high up the NYT list).

An interesting case will be ADWD. Pre-sales are insanely high and the boost from the TV series is already having a significant impact on sales of the existing books (apparently per-year sales of the first four books doubled in 2010 compared to 2009), including pushing some of them back up into the NYT Top 40. Based on that, ADWD could land with all the force of a new WoT book.

Anyone have any idea how well The Heroes did in the USA? It did spectacularly well in the UK, hitting #3 on the Sunday Times bestseller list.

On a more unfortunate note, both Abraham and Scholes have failed to do as well as earlier hoped in the thread.

 

[KatG]

Well I said I wouldn't be flabbergasted if it was Rothfuss. I'm not sure that his place on the laundry list is secure yet, but his performance on the lists definitely makes him a big leader in alt world fantasy. We'll see if he can keep up a Goodkind profile. Meanwhile, Abercrombie pulled a bit of a surprise off in Britain. I just got Lamentation, so I'm looking forward to reading it. Scholes and Abraham are very well established mid-listers now so if they have a series that catches, they will do very well. China Mieville, who did actually have the pole position, has run off to do SF. We've had a number of debuts -- Black & Gold, Painted Man, Red Wolf Conspiracy, etc. -- do very well, but Rothfuss definitely is now in the lead with his second book.

*Butcher doesn't count because it's contemporary fantasy. If we're doing all the fantasy, then Rothfuss is outstripped by several authors -- Butcher, Harris, Harrison and Armstrong.

 

[Pvt]

Well I said I wouldn't be flabbergasted if it was Rothfuss. I'm not sure that his place on the laundry list is secure yet, but his performance on the lists definitely makes him a big leader in alt world fantasy. We'll see if he can keep up a Goodkind profile. Meanwhile, Abercrombie pulled a bit of a surprise off in Britain. I just got Lamentation, so I'm looking forward to reading it. Scholes and Abraham are very well established mid-listers now so if they have a series that catches, they will do very well. China Mieville, who did actually have the pole position, has run off to do SF. We've had a number of debuts -- Black & Gold, Painted Man, Red Wolf Conspiracy, etc. -- do very well, but Rothfuss definitely is now in the lead with his second book.

*Butcher doesn't count because it's contemporary fantasy. If we're doing all the fantasy, then Rothfuss is outstripped by several authors -- Butcher, Harris, Harrison and Armstrong.

Yeah, I don't think Rothfuss is going to make it when he's writing a book every 4 years. It just takes him too damn long just to put out one book. The only one who has a shot is Sanderson right now with his proposed 10 book Way of Kings series.

 

[3rdI]

Yeah, I don't think Rothfuss is going to make it when he's writing a book every 4 years. It just takes him too damn long just to put out one book. The only one who has a shot is Sanderson right now with his proposed 10 book Way of Kings series.

Agreed Sanderson will probably take over the mantle. He has another nine books to write in the The Stormlight series and other projects, etc. He seems to churn out very large books very quickly. Rothfuss thankfully takes his time as he is obsessed with revision although I do not suspect it will take four years for him to complete The Doors of Stone.

Abercrombie will be there as well, particularly being that he lives in the UK and therefore, I suspect, has a bigger footprint throughout Europe than Sanderson.

 

[KatG]

I think Sanderson will definitely be up there because of his work on Wheel of Time. But he's not having the sales record Rothfuss is having with just two books. Rothfuss' problem with one book does not mean a problem with every book. It doesn't work that way.

Ultimately, I think all this talk about crowns is rather pointless, but I guess it relates to the ranking idea.

 

[nquixote]

Late to the discussion, but:

Stephanie Meyer. In terms of sales and wide appeal, that is.

 

[London]

Yeah, I don't think Rothfuss is going to make it when he's writing a book every 4 years. It just takes him too damn long just to put out one book. The only one who has a shot is Sanderson right now with his proposed 10 book Way of Kings series.

Right. He's mentioned that he writes slowly, so I wouldn't expect to see a novel a year from him.

 

[henderson]

Adrian Tchaikovsky has been a very prolific writer with six or, possibly, seven books out in the last three years. I think he is gaining a bigger following with each released book. Of course, he is not in the same strata as Brandon Sanderson or Patrick Rothfuss, but he is an up and coming writer that alot of upside.

Another is Michael J. Sullivan with his Riyira Revelations. He has written and published five of the six books in rapid succession through a small publisher. Now with him recently signed to a big publisher who will release his six novels in the three month span later this year, he is also another up and coming writer to keep an eye on.

Brent Weeks with his Night Angel trilogy and BLACK PRISM, his latest release and first book in a new trilogy, is another up an coming writer to keep an eye on.

 

[KatG]

Late to the discussion, but:

Stephanie Meyer. In terms of sales and wide appeal, that is.

Again, not alternate world fantasy, which seemed to be the area people wanted to concentrate on. She's YA and a phenom, which automatically places her above Jordan, Martin and Goodkind, none of whom are phenoms, though Jordan came close in the long term.

 

[ChrisW]

*Butcher doesn't count because it's contemporary fantasy. If we're doing all the fantasy, then Rothfuss is outstripped by several authors -- Butcher, Harris, Harrison and Armstrong.

umm granted it was Changes that got his #1 but his last Codex Alera book did sell over 100,000 copies in it's year of release according to PW.

Oh and thanks for telling us what can count and what doesn't and that it's all pointless. Whatever would we do without you telling us what's what?

 

[Evil Agent]

Regarding Abercrombie, I live in one of the biggest cities in Canada, and his books are nearly non-existent. They are notoriously hard to find, even in the big chain bookstore. Occasionally I'll see a copy of Book 1, or maybe Best Served Cold... but that's it. I still haven't seen any copies of The Heroes, I'm not even sure if it's been released here yet. I had to order mine online.

I don't know why this is (Rothfuss and Lynch, for example, are a lot easier to find), but I'm guessing that probably has an affect on his sales and popularity.

 

[Loerwyn]

Meanwhile, Abercrombie pulled a bit of a surprise off in Britain.

Very much so, at least with The Heroes. I've not seen it in supermarkets, but it's been on offer in WHSmith and Waterstones (And been very prominently displayed in the windows), so that's something. I would say it's a case of wait and see with Rothfuss. It could be his success continues, but I wouldn't be surprised if he suddenly fell out of the limelight at some point.

I'm going to agree that Sanderson is the next big thing - If he isn't already - and I think it's well deserved. Don't forget that he also gives back to the writing community with his Writing Excuses podcast, something I'd recommend to anyone who's wanting to write or needs help with it.

On top of that, I reckon that Adrian Tchaikovsky will fit into the same group as Modesitt and Lackey in that they're constantly turning out books but without the fame and recognition of some authors. I like to call it 'Bread & Cheese' fantasy, but I'm sure there's a better term.

 

[KatG]

umm granted it was Changes that got his #1 but his last Codex Alera book did sell over 100,000 copies in it's year of release according to PW.

Well yeah, but that's in large part due to his Harry Dresden audience. I don't think you can say that the Codex Alera series has become the equivalent of Wheel of Time, Sword of Truth, Thomas Covenant or Song of Ice and Fire.

Which is why things are still a bit out to guess on the Kingkiller Chronicles. He hit the list on his first book, #1 on his second, but in terms of being widely known even to the category audience, I'm not sure he is yet. For example, when Harris, Armstrong, Harrison and Butcher were racking up large sales on the bestseller lists in the early-mid oughts, lots of fantasy fans had no idea who they were. And if you mention Tim Powers and Charles de Lint, who are giants in the field, lots of people have no idea who those folks are. But they've probably heard of one of the big alt world series -- Shanara, Wheel of Time, Song, Drizzit, Elric, etc.

And this is the issue for Sanderson too. He's had several series, but he does not have a Wheel of Time level series yet, except for his work on completing The Wheel of Time. That has substantially boosted his fanbase, but it doesn't necessarily make him the heir apparent. (I will say that I'm finding his work on The Gathering Storm nearly seamless with Jordan, which is highly impressive.) I won't be surprised if he gets there, but he's not there yet. And neither really is Rothfuss. It's just that Rothfuss looks like he may be firmly on that trajectory.

So it depends on what you're measuring and whether it's just alt world or the whole field or the whole adult field.

 

[Werthead]

Tchaikvosky is doing excellent business for Tor UK, but in the USA he's published by Pyr, a smaller house which doesn't have the clout to turn him into a real superstar stateside (Abercrombie has hit bigger US success once he transferred from Pyr to Orbit US), at least not yet.

 

[ChrisW]

Well yeah, but that's in large part due to his Harry Dresden audience.

Well one could also say that the Dresden books have been propelled to the top because Butcher has managed to snag a fair chunk of the standard fantasy audience over to the Dresden books. From what I've observed he's clearly grabbed more of that audience than the rest of Urban crowd.

 

[KatG]

Well one could also say that the Dresden books have been propelled to the top because Butcher has managed to snag a fair chunk of the standard fantasy audience over to the Dresden books. From what I've observed he's clearly grabbed more of that audience than the rest of Urban crowd.

I don't disagree with you at all, but the discussants in this thread wanted to concentrate on alternate world fantasy, so that's what the predictions were about.

 

[nquixote]

Again, not alternate world fantasy, which seemed to be the area people wanted to concentrate on. She's YA and a phenom, which automatically places her above Jordan, Martin and Goodkind, none of whom are phenoms, though Jordan came close in the long term.

What defines a "phenom"?

 

[ChrisW]

I don't disagree with you at all, but the discussants in this thread wanted to concentrate on alternate world fantasy, so that's what the predictions were about.

Not all of them and since so many fantasy fans have embraced his Dresden books he gets to be included. My thread my rules.

If Rothfuss does stick with his three books only for Kvothes story, then he might be a one hit(trilogy) wonder. Jacqueline Carey lost momentum and pissed off fans when she wrote The Sundering even though it's a great duology. Same could be said for Hobb. Rothfuss could well face the same thing. Brent Weeks imo blew his chances when he decided to start a new series not related to the Night Angel world. Me thinks if he'd stayed in that world his next book would have debuted a lot higher than The Black Prism did. Might have been a good move for his writing but commercially imo was a bad idea. Seems people want more Night Angel books than the next book in his new series, hence his plan to write Durzo novellas in between each book.

Also it's always a good idea to keep in mind Stephen Donaldson' famous remarks about losing 3/4 of audience when he did fantasy different than Covenant and then 3/4 more when he did sf, so he did not publish for a while after...

Poor old Feist has been stuck writing Mikidemia books for 30 years just to get by. Got to feel bad for him

 

[3rdI]

If Rothfuss does stick with his three books only for Kvothes story, then he might be a one hit(trilogy) wonder.

Good chance you might be correct on that one. I am sure he will write other interesting stories but many fantasy fans seem to prefer the epic 15 book stories which is why I think Sanderson will be big for a long time. He has nine books left in the The Stormlight Archive which seems like it is the next big thing. Not a bad book just wish it had more of an edge. Sanderson is ultra conservative. No joke when he gave his review of WMF he actually put a disclaimer there warning his fans that WMF has a fair amount of sex in it which made me damn near fall off my chair laughing. WMF has sex sure but its not like Rothfuss is writing vividly detailed scenes. Something tells me Sanderson has never read Bakker.