- Joined
- Feb 18, 2008
- Messages
- 3,552
This seems to be the critical error in Musk's argument. However likely he considers the simulation scenario to be, you still have to get beyond vastly more likely and expansive Holmesian/Occamian scenarios to get to his one.from the OP article said:And here’s the problem: there is a universe-sized metaphysical gap between ruling out and ruling in — I can’t rule out that invisible fairies are currently swirling around the room, but I have very little reason to rule it in. I can’t rule out that I am the only thing that exists, but I have very little reason to rule it in. These are reasonable positions to take. Musk, however, rules in that we’re all characters in a video game.
Similarly, @Justin Swanton, I'm afraid I'm not finding your arguments especially convincing.
That IS an assumption, yes, but not an especially challenging one -- since the alternative demands vastly greater assumptions: either an extra-universal creator force, by definition being more complex than a universe incapable of generating life/intelligent life; or (at the very least) a whole other universe that is capable of creating life/int-life (or a God - has to come from somewhere, right?) and transmitting one or the other across an unspecified boundary condition into the universe we can observe life occurring in; either of which has left no apparent traces.The Anthropic Principle makes the point that however unlikely conditions are for life to exist in the universe, this universe (which assumes there are other parallel or prior universes) has them since it has sapient living beings able to think about it. But that doesn't mean that this universe has the necessary conditions to generate life, even less to generate intelligent life. That's an assumption.
But the second of those (well, both really) just demands extra complexity for the sake of it. Why do we need to make a negating assumption about whether life could be initiated here, when life is here and seems okay with it? How does assuming we needed a prior step help us, when there's no evidence of that step being taken? Also, your bolded this isn't necessary: you can just say "the universe contains DNA-based life-maintaining conditions" without the need to postulate other universes with different set-ups.
You're also happy to criticise other assumptions, but then you just assert your own without offering any kind of foundation for them, which doesn't help. Like the claim that computers/robots/etc. will never be able to achieve intelligence, ending up with this:
But so do you, so does everyone. There's nothing in your robot example that can't also be applied to a human being who lacks a particular "verbal expression". If I ask for your opinion on ingular pherantics, for example, I'd hope you'd admit you have no idea what I'm talking about, and say as much. Are you, therefore, no more than a toaster? What about a five year old who hasn't learned any three syllable words -- philosophical zombie, or simply not yet fully educated? Or the dog who hasn't yet figured out that when you make the sound heerboi you're eager for a face-full of saliva?The most sophisticated human robot will be able to mimic preprogrammed human responses, nothing more. There's an easy test: start a discussion on some concepts of which the verbal expression has not been entered into the robot's database. It will become very clear very fast that the robot has no idea what you are talking about.
...
If it repeats the phrase when a certain circumstance triggers the response that means nothing. The robot has to prove it can understand intelligent concepts.
For robots/computers/etc., you can't know what future discoveries will achieve, so to claim the impossibility of their achieving intelligence is clearly a flawed position. This is the aspect of Musk's statement that I'm on-board with: that tech is advancing with amazing speed, astounding complexity is both ever closer to our grasp and ever less graspable for having that very nature, and so -- in theory -- reality simulations could very well become "a thing".
But his assumption that accepting the capacity for something barely conceivable to happen means it most likely already has..? Musk is slipping on his own drool, I think. That's only a hop, a skip and a jump away from the old fallacy that conceiving of a greatest possible being (one of whose features would be "existing", as that is greater than "not existing") means such a being must exist (And Therefore We Have A God, Thank You And Goodnight). Nope.
Last edited:

