How old will you be when the last ASOIAF novel comes out?

[Takoren]

Winter isn't coming

Ooooh, I see whatcha did thar...

 

[Ochos]

In answer to the original question, 732 at least. They do have those Futurama head jars don't they?????

 

[chris777]

Book 1 - 1996
Book 2 - 1999
Book 3 - 2000
Book 4 - 2005
Book 5 - 2011

3year, 1years, 5years, 6years. 2more books. Using the proportional math extrapolation.... We should see 7years, then 9years.

Book 6 - 2018
Book 7 - 2027

So +11years from now.

I will be 45. =/

GRRM will be 78.

 

[Takoren]

So +11years from now.

I will be 45. =/

How old will GRRM be in 11years?

GRRM will be 78. Not so old as to make this impossible.

I'll be nearing 50.

 

[Kieran Song]

I'm hoping I can read it before my kids graduate. My kids are 2 and 1, by the way. This isn't a knock on Mr. Martin though. He writes bigs books that are worth the wait. It's just a shame in seeing it all play out on TV first. Hold the door anyone?

 

[Takoren]

I'm hoping I can read it before my kids graduate. My kids are 2 and 1, by the way. This isn't a knock on Mr. Martin though. He writes bigs books that are worth the wait. It's just a shame in seeing it all play out on TV first. Hold the door anyone?

Hold the door...(tears)

I'm not sure how worth the wait they are. Books 1-3 were amazing. Books 4 and 5 were frustrating, and they're the ones we had to wait the longest for.

 

[Gilgamesh]

The last book is not even going to be published traditionally. By the time the series is finished, we'll have sufficiently advanced technology to upload it to our minds directly.

 

[KatG]

Book 1 - 1996
Book 2 - 1999
Book 3 - 2000
Book 4 - 2005
Book 5 - 2011

The way Martin writes books is not chronologically. He runs different storylines with different pov characters concurrently, and also had more books because the books he wrote got long and eventually were split. So he may spend time on one character's storyline and that storyline gets finished but is used in two different books.

So he started the series in 1992, writing the material that would make up all of the first three books. When the first part got long, he wrote to finish off some storylines and chopped it off to make the first book. He then wrote what would be Books 2 and 3 concurrently/overlapping, having to again split texts. So he wrote the first three books from 1992-1999, three massive books (which could have been split into four,) in seven years. That works out to about 2.33 years per book.

Then he was going to write Winds of Winter. But he realized that he needed to write one book in between instead of having a time gap. So he worked on what would be Books 4 and 5 and part of Book 6. So that got long and Martin tried to get plotlines to a point where he could chop the narrative in half chronologically. But he ran into a big problem, had to scrap and redo a lot of the narrative. Some storylines were in disarray, others were complete. So eventually instead of splitting in half, he split laterally with finished storylines going into Crows and other ones going into what would be Dragons, with other parts saved for later in Winter. He ended up writing about 200 pages that would go in Winter. So that's two books and a bit over 2000-early 2011. So that's five and a half or a bit less per book for the problem children. He took a bit of a break in 2011 after getting Dragons out.

Now, he's currently writing both Winter and the seventh book concurrently. He'd planned to be done for Winter in 2016 sounds like, to try and work with the t.v. series, but he ran into problems. The book may come out in late 2017 or 2018. That would be five or six years, or, if we count the material he wrote while also doing Books 3 and 4, a longer period. How much he also writes of the seventh book during that time is uncertain, but may shorten the time for Book 7.

If you do it purely in publication dates, Martin published five books in fifteen years, which is the equivalent of one book every three years. If you go from when he started writing to last publication date for Book 5, that's nineteen years for 5 books, which is slightly less than four years for each book. So you can try various calculations from those.

 

[jackdaw]

Hold the door...(tears)

I'm not sure how worth the wait they are. Books 1-3 were amazing. Books 4 and 5 were frustrating, and they're the ones we had to wait the longest for.

In the unlikely event that I could step into a time machine...and re-appear just after book 3 finished...coupled with even more unlikely event of Ser George asking me for advice, I'd suggest to him just packing it in after book 3.

Could have just left "TV script engine" some guidance notes and left it to chug away to completion.

And moved onto writing other books starting afresh, with less convoluted story lines, etc.

As it is, absurd as it sounds, I sympathise with this immensely talented and successful writer...can't shake image from my mind of a chap chained to a typewriter, beavering away on something he doesn't enjoy anymore....striving for perfection and to please fans...rather than just cracking out a story that flows naturally out of his own interest.

 

[Rulkez]

As it is, absurd as it sounds, I sympathise with this immensely talented and successful writer...can't shake image from my mind of a chap chained to a typewriter, beavering away on something he doesn't enjoy anymore....striving for perfection and to please fans...rather than just cracking out a story that flows naturally out of his own interest.

I'd genuinley not care if he just said " **** it , don't want to do this any more " and wrote a blog post on how the story ends. I've so much to read anyway that I can live with the TV series providing my GoT fix.

 

[chris777]

The way Martin writes books is not chronologically. He runs different storylines with different pov characters concurrently, and also had more books because the books he wrote got long and eventually were split. So he may spend time on one character's storyline and that storyline gets finished but is used in two different books.

So he started the series in 1992, writing the material that would make up all of the first three books. When the first part got long, he wrote to finish off some storylines and chopped it off to make the first book. He then wrote what would be Books 2 and 3 concurrently/overlapping, having to again split texts. So he wrote the first three books from 1992-1999, three massive books (which could have been split into four,) in seven years. That works out to about 2.33 years per book.

Then he was going to write Winds of Winter. But he realized that he needed to write one book in between instead of having a time gap. So he worked on what would be Books 4 and 5 and part of Book 6. So that got long and Martin tried to get plotlines to a point where he could chop the narrative in half chronologically. But he ran into a big problem, had to scrap and redo a lot of the narrative. Some storylines were in disarray, others were complete. So eventually instead of splitting in half, he split laterally with finished storylines going into Crows and other ones going into what would be Dragons, with other parts saved for later in Winter. He ended up writing about 200 pages that would go in Winter. So that's two books and a bit over 2000-early 2011. So that's five and a half or a bit less per book for the problem children. He took a bit of a break in 2011 after getting Dragons out.

Now, he's currently writing both Winter and the seventh book concurrently. He'd planned to be done for Winter in 2016 sounds like, to try and work with the t.v. series, but he ran into problems. The book may come out in late 2017 or 2018. That would be five or six years, or, if we count the material he wrote while also doing Books 3 and 4, a longer period. How much he also writes of the seventh book during that time is uncertain, but may shorten the time for Book 7.

If you do it purely in publication dates, Martin published five books in fifteen years, which is the equivalent of one book every three years. If you go from when he started writing to last publication date for Book 5, that's nineteen years for 5 books, which is slightly less than four years for each book. So you can try various calculations from those.

Considering it's already been longer than those averages for Winter, your math doesn't work. Even if it is a more accurate representation. It would be 2015 and 2019 for the last 2 books. We are already past 2015, obviously. So if we assume you are right and most of book7 will have been written by the time Winter comes out. 2017 for winter, and around 2021 for Book 7. I would love to see that or earlier, but I am most definitely not holding my breath.

I'd genuinley not care if he just said " **** it , don't want to do this any more " and wrote a blog post on how the story ends. I've so much to read anyway that I can live with the TV series providing my GoT fix.

I've thought this same thing. It would be a terrible position to be in to write something so massive that gets so popular and realize you just aren't into writing the story anymore. If it were me though....I'd sell the rights to some author I highly respected. With a contract that states how he has to structure the story and end certain plot lines so it doesn't become something else. This is under the assumption that I don't plan to write it.

But I think it's not exactly that. He just has other priorities now. You can think of hobbies you love but just can't make time for any more. You COULD make time for them if you really tried, but priorities right. So, he will eventually finish, just very slowly. What irks me is that he complains about all the hardcore fans yelling at him for not writing. "I can't even watch a football game or go to the grocery store with out someone yelling 'you need to be writing instead!'" Yes they are a little out of line, but they are only doing it because the time between is a bit outrageous.

 

[KatG]

Considering it's already been longer than those averages for Winter, your math doesn't work. Even if it is a more accurate representation. It would be 2015 and 2019 for the last 2 books. We are already past 2015, obviously. So if we assume you are right and most of book7 will have been written by the time Winter comes out. 2017 for winter, and around 2021 for Book 7. I would love to see that or earlier, but I am most definitely not holding my breath

I didn't give you any math that was my math. I said, here are several different ways you can calculate it, based on when Martin actually composed the previous books. You could do it based on the first three, the last two, the five in aggregate.

As for the rest, you all said the same things before Dragons came out. He was supposed to not care about the story anymore then too. So I don't bother getting into that argument further. But as for calculating when he might finish, as a question of method, there are lots of ways to calculate it and with the understanding that he started writing in 1992, not 1995.

 

[Werthead]

He actually started writing AGoT in the summer of 1991, June or July. In fact, very nearly exactly 25 years ago. And it was a bit more like this:

• Summer 1991: Starts writing the series with Bran's first chapter in AGoT. Originally plans a short story, then a novel with the primary focus on the political storyline. No magic whatsoever. Phyllis Eisenstein rather quickly talks him out of that and gets him to "put the dragons in".
• Winter 1991/92: GRRM is called away to Hollywood to work on a TV project, Doorways. AGoT is put on hold at around 100-120 manuscript pages.
• 1992: GRRM works on Doorways, but also does some planning for AGoT (he plans Tyrion's storyline whilst he is driving to and from casting sessions in France, for example).
• Summer 1993: Doorways is dropped and GRRM returns to Santa Fe. He picks up AGoT where he left it and quickly decides on the series being a trilogy consisting of the novels A Game of Thrones (focused on Eddard and the War of the Five Kings), A Dance with Dragons (focused on Daenerys and her invasion of Westeros) and The Winds of Winter (focused on the Wall and the Others).
• October 1993: GRRM sends his agent a synopsis of the trilogy and the first 170 MS pages (13 chapters) of AGoT to send around publishers. This synopsis is dramatically different to what we eventually got.
• February 1994: Bantam picks up the US rights to the book and, after a fierce bidding war with Gollancz, HarperCollins secures the UK rights for over $600K.
• Mid-to-late 1995: AGoT passes 1,400 MS pages and GRRM realises he needs to split the book in two. 1,088 MS pages are published as A Game of Thrones. He admits that ASoIaF will now be four volumes long.
• 2 August 1996: A Game of Throne is published.
• August 1997: ASoIaF wins its first (and, for the books anyway, only) Hugo Award for Blood of the Dragon, a novella collecting Daenery's AGoT storyline into one story.
  
• Spring 1998: A Clash of Kings passes roughtly 1,500 MS pages. Again, George shaves off the first 1,150 or so MS pages to become A Clash of Kings. He writes a new, more detailed outline which now envisages six books: A Game of Thrones, A Clash of Kings, A Storm of Swords, A Dance with Dragons, The Winds of Winter and A Time for Wolves.
• October 1998: A Clash of Kings is published (in the UK; the US edition follows in February 1999).
• April 2000: After spending almost every waking hour for two-and-a-bit years straight working on the book (including even spending part of Christmas Day 1999 working on it), A Storm of Swords is completed. At 1,525 (ish) MS pages, it's the biggest book in the series.
• July 2000: A Storm of Swords is published (in the UK; the US edition comes out in October). George begins work on A Dance with Dragons, which will pick up the story after a five-year gap. GRRM decided to introduce this gap during the writing of ASoS to allow the younger characters to grow up.
• September 2001: GRRM admits he has junked over a year's work on ADWD after realising the gap wasn't working. Some material (like the "Mercy" chapter from TWoW and Daenery's chapter in the fighting pits with Drogon) is reworked but most is thrown out entirely. He starts work on a new fourth book which ditches the five year gap, called A Feast for Crows.
• May 2005: After three-and-a-half years, AFFC is unexpectedly completed ahead of schedule. Sitting on over 1,600 MS pages of material, George seeks the advice of Daniel Abraham on structural issues. Abraham points out that he can split the narrative by geographic location. After considering the plan with his publishers, GRRM agrees. Announcing the split, he also confirms that the series will now be seven volumes long. A year or two later, he replaces the title A Time for Wolves with A Dream of Spring.
  
• October 2005: AFFC is published.
• February 2006: David Benioff and D.B. Weiss meet GRRM and get him to agree to let them adapt ASoIaF as a TV show.
• 2006-May 2011: The Long Wait for ADWD. The principle reasons for the delay on the novel appear to be timeline complexities (most famously the Meereenese Knot), considerable rewrites to almost every character's storyline and the decision to move ADWD's timeline past AFFC and reunite the characters at the end of the book. After completing the novel, GRRM estimates that he may have written between two and three times the amount of words in the final novel (420,000 words) in rewrites, narrative dead ends and abandoned storylines.
  
• July 2011: ADWD is published.
• Early 2012: After a very lengthy publishing tour, GRRM resumes work on The Winds of Winter.

Yes they are a little out of line, but they are only doing it because the time between is a bit outrageous.

The average length of a novel is about 80,000 words. Most crime novels are that length, romance books are a bit shorter and SF a little bit longer. The average fantasy novel is a bit longer at around 120,000 words. Many writers can write a book of that size in about one year. Some take two to write a book of that length. Guy Gavriel Kay, for example, takes three years, pretty much regular as clockwork, to write novels that clock in at around 200,000 to 220,000 words.

Taking between five and six years to write a novel that is 420,000 words long, and involves writing many tens of thousands of words more than that in unused drafts and rewrites, is not unusual or outrageous in the slightest. It's actually not slow at all. The problem really is precedent: it took George 2.5 years to write ASoS, so people ask why he can't just do that again (the reason being that producing ASoS in 2.5 years involved an insane amount of pressure that George has chosen not to put himself through again, not to mention rushing certain things he really shouldn't have, like the decision to enact the five-year gap). The other problem is competition: in the same timeframe George has been writing ASoIaF we've had Brandon Sanderson tossing off massive novels like they're poems. However, even Sanderson has found doing this to be much harder than expected, taking 3+ years to produce a novel of 400,000 words that, frankly, is not batting on the same level as GRRM in terms of characterisation or prose (no mattter how superficially more impressive the worldbuilding is). Even Steven Erikson, once lauded for his speed, has taken 4 years to produce his latest epic fantasy novel (c. 350,000 words) and it's response so far has been lukewarm.

George could produce the books much more quickly if they didn't need to be so massive.

 

[chris777]

I feel as if the point of the thread is being lost a little.

It's fun to look back and see what everyone expected release dates to be.

 

[KatG]

Lol, so twenty years (1991-2011) to do five huge books (basically they're ten books, but let's stick to publication form.) That averages out to four years per book. So you could calculate it that way -- eight more years for two more books, from 2011, which would be the last on 2019. Or, you can go with the optimistic estimate from the first three books that were more outlined, 2.33 years, in which case it would be already eliminated since he passed it and obviously must now be tortured by demons. Or you can go with the last two books, which are five and a half years averaged out, so that would be another eleven years from 2011, so he would finish in 2022. Or you can go with rounding up to six years apiece, in terms of when he actually started writing Winds of Winter concurrently with Dragons, to when we have a very loose estimate of it coming in the next year or two, which would then be twelve years and he'd finish in 2023. Or, you can go on how it took Tolkien about sixteen years to write three books worth (though really one long book called Lord of the Rings,) which is five years and a bit. Or, you could go on the fact that it took Michael Crichton eight years of research and work to produce Jurassic Park (which is funny as it has very little real science in it,) which would mean sixteen years in total for the last two and finishing in 2027.

Or, you could go on the supposition that what George is sick of is the television series, not his books. (I don't really believe this to be true, mind you, anymore than I believe he's sick of his books, but it works for calculation as well as anything else.) In which case, he would be waiting for the television series to finish first, which would mean that Winter would come out in 2018 and the last one a few years after that. Or, there is the theory that SF author John Scalzi is actually not a human but made up of a highly intelligent swarm/hive of bees. It's entirely possible that George R.R. Martin is made up of a murder of crows. Crows live about twenty years, so the crows that made him up during the writing of the books are now in their dotage. However, one banded wild crow was recorded as having made it to 29.5 years. If we go by that, then Martin in the book writing crow form, from 1991, has four and a half more years left, so the last book would be ready in 2020.

I'm sure I've missed some methods of calculation, but those are some basic ones.

 

[suciul]

I feel as if the point of the thread is being lost a little.

It's fun to look back and see what everyone expected release dates to be.

Ok, so now I expect a late 2017/2018 release for The Winds of winter as the last "real" novel of the series followed by a novelization of the TV show and/or a compendium detailing the fates of the characters in the book series (especially when such were different from the show or for characters not included) in 2020 or so when it is clear no more novels are coming out - this may change if rumors that HBO want to do an "adventures of Jon Snow/Stark/Targaryen" after the end of the current storyline series are true, but the Winds of Winter will be the last novel in the series (written by GRRM as despite protestations to the contrary I can easily see him hiring a younger author from his Wild Cards stable of authors to write the final novel/s in 2020 or so) with 95%+ probability imho

 

[Takoren]

I must have missed where GRRM said he was writing ADoS concurrently with TWoW. I just googled it to make sure I really hadn't missed it, but all I found was speculation that he MIGHT be doing so, and that's what's taking so long. If anyone has confirmation, I welcome it.

I am forced to wonder why other authors seem capable of releasing books as long if not longer than ASOIAF and there's nowhere near this level of schedule slippage. This is why I don't accept "it's because the books are huge!" as an answer. Yes, authors write at different paces, but there are not many authors who do this kind of thing, which is why he stands out. No one's yelling "Dammit, when's Erikson gonna get off his ass and finish the Kharkanas trilogy?" because we know he will. The second book just came out. It took four years, the longest we've ever had to wait for him, but he has a reliable track record, and he released the main sequence of books like clockwork, the longest we had to wait for any volume being 2 years.

But then, some say his quality suffered as a result. I often hear people say "If GRRM needs to take his time and perfect the book, I say let him. I'd rather wait longer for a higher quality book than have him rush things and get a bad book sooner." But how many of you thought A Dance with Dragons was really worth the wait? It was far from the worst thing I'd ever read, but the general opinion is that the two worst books in this series were A Feast for Crows and A Dance with Dragons, which were also the two we had to wait the longest for.

 

[KatG]

I must have missed where GRRM said he was writing ADoS concurrently with TWoW. I just googled it to make sure I really hadn't missed it, but all I found was speculation that he MIGHT be doing so, and that's what's taking so long. If anyone has confirmation, I welcome it.

He had about 200 to possibly 300 pages of Winter going by the time Dragons was done. Some of that was because parts written for Dragons were then moved to go later, into Winter, the bulk of that being done during the summer of 2010, when he was in the last stage of Dragons. He's been reading or posting some excerpts from Winter for the past several years, the last one a few days ago. Martin has said he's not adding any new viewpoints to the series. A chapter on Theon was released in December 2011 and published as an excerpt in the U.K. paperback version of Dragons, which I think was the earliest bit released, but I'm not sure:

http://grrm.livejournal.com/169899.html

This of course makes the calculations more difficult, if you want to make calculations, since Martin writes out storylines along each pov character, coordinating with what he has already done for other characters and what he has outlined to have happened. He originally presented the series as a trilogy, but as he writes the different lines and interacts them and juggles timelines, they've all gone longer than planned and the series went to seven planned books, the last two less likely to go long, since they are the most outlined out, I believe. So he's been in the situation where he's written plotlines and then cuts them off for a book, leaving the rest of the material for that plotline to be moved to the next book. So he writes concurrently and has pretty early on in doing the series. That's one of the reasons that Game of Thrones, Clash of Kings and Storm of Swords did go the way that they did -- because he was writing all three overlapping in time. He started Games in 1991 -- it wasn't published until 1996. That's several years. Then he cut a third of Games off and that third went into Clash of Kings, with some bits for Storm of Swords. Then Clash of Kings was cut and all that material got moved into Storm of Swords. So it actually took much longer to write the books than the publication dates suggest, because he wasn't doing them one after the other but in tandem a good bit of the time.

After that, Martin started writing what would have been Winds of Winter under the original plan. And he wrote quite a bit of it before realizing there needed to be a book in between, that the plotlines did not work and everything had to be scrapped. So that cost him several years. He then wrote what was both Crows and Dragons at the same time -- several years after Storm had been published. But it was going long and his publishers wanted him to split it. So he took the character plotlines that were done, split them off laterally and that was Crows. Everything else went into Dragons, which then required the coordinating of lots of plotlines around Danerys to finish. While he wrote Dragons, he wrote several parts along various character plotlines that went into Winds of Winter.

When Dragons came out in summer of 2011, Martin was contractually obligated by his publishers to tour internationally to promote the books and he was contractually obligated by HBO to tour internationally for the television show. Because the show had turned his series into a phenom with Hollywood adaptation -- for which they had him write an episode each year until he stopped that -- it was quite different than when Feast of Crows came out as just a bestseller. This is what happens the bigger an author gets -- they have a lot more obligations for promotion and events that take time away from writing. If George was the sort of writer who could dash off text at 4 am in a hotel suite, that would help, but not only is his writing process not conducive to it but the books have such massive casts and plotlines that it's very difficult to coordinate that effectively on the road, even in the digital age. And if he makes a mistake about what he's done before (emotionally, not just detail,) then he has to start again. So he didn't write the rest of 2011, did the promotion, and started Winter back up again in early 2012. He was hoping to finish by end of 2015 or early this year because of the tremendous pressure from the t.v. series. Did not happen, but does not indicate that he's oodles and oodles away from finishing either.

So if you want to calculate based on the past books, it's quite difficult because when he "started" each book is not clear, except for Games, because of the overlap and changes. Also, the books are not alike. Each one is different with different events and circumstances, some of which are easier to write than others. So a series average of 4 years, based on when Martin started writing the series (1991) to finished/published Dragons (2011,) would give you until 2019 for two books. Of course, with that, he missed the 2015 window, but if he gets Winter done this year, then, given that he's also probably writing bits of Spring as well, he might make it. But he might not.

It doesn't matter much since the ending of the series has been pretty known since the beginning and the television series will give you the basic details of it next year, even if they get there by a slightly different route, if that's what you want. But if you are going to calculate a book series end based on past history, then, logically, that the writing of the books overlaps does need to figure into calculations.

 

[Takoren]

He had about 200 to possibly 300 pages of Winter going by the time Dragons was done. Some of that was because parts written for Dragons were then moved to go later, into Winter, the bulk of that being done during the summer of 2010, when he was in the last stage of Dragons. He's been reading or posting some excerpts from Winter for the past several years, the last one a few days ago. Martin has said he's not adding any new viewpoints to the series. A chapter on Theon was released in December 2011 and published as an excerpt in the U.K. paperback version of Dragons, which I think was the earliest bit released, but I'm not sure:

http://grrm.livejournal.com/169899.html

http://grrm.livejournal.com/169899.html
I know about that, but that doesn't sound to me like he's also working on ADoS, unless he also shoves some chapters back for that one. Also, 300 pages is...what, about a fourth of the final product? Despite that, I was all optimism back in 2011. I figured that with so much already written, and the major humps that you outline below already gotten past, we'd see TWoT in less than four years.

I know the rest of what you wrote. It's been gone over and over again in multiple instances, including several on these boards. And until about the last year and half or so, I was very much an apologist, telling the fanboys whining about how he needs to stop watching football and get back to writing to go stuff it, but lately I'm seeing their point of view a bit more.

I hear a lot about his contractual obligations, but clearly they weren't non-negotiable, because of late he's more or less cancelled all of it in order to get TWoT finished. And of course I know he hasn't got "oodles" to finish, but that's another reason why I wonder what the hold-up is. He's been talking like he's nearly done for over a year now. He went from "I hope to have it finished by 2015" to "I hope to have it finished before season 6 of GOT airs" to "I'm not sure if I'll be done even by the end of 2016". I know that "I hope" is different than "I will" but I wish, if he really wasn't sure, he had stuck to his code of silence that he implemented when he realized his lag on ADwD was getting out of hand.

And as heretical as it even feels to type this, I almost appreciate the series more. I certainly feel like some plot lines from ADwD were handled better on the show (Tyrion actually makes it to Meereen, the greyscale affects a character we've come to know and love, not some johnny-come-lately I barely even remembered being mentioned, Sansa actually having stuff happen to her, etc.) and this season is pretty good, too.

Also, one factual error; we won't see how it ends next season. They're doing two short seasons. Season 7 will be seven episodes long and season 8 will be six episodes long. Boy, those seasons better be epic.

 

[KatG]

I know about that, but that doesn't sound to me like he's also working on ADoS, unless he also shoves some chapters back for that one.

Again, that's what he does and has done throughout the writing of the series. He's not thinking about framing each book as a book (which is how we got seven in the first place.) He follows each pov character plotline and has to jiggle the pieces to work them together, with symbolic imagery and such. So it's what happens to each set of characters, not which book it's going to go into. I don't know how much Spring he's working on, he hasn't said, but some of it will be done in tandem. I don't take any of these calculations seriously. I just thought people were suggesting ones with too narrow parameters, given the actual history of the series, so I added info.

I hear a lot about his contractual obligations, but clearly they weren't non-negotiable, because of late he's more or less cancelled all of it in order to get TWoT finished.

Some are and some aren't. He had to go on the book tour for Dragons in 2011, but then his publisher has otherwise been asking a lot less so he can write. Publisher promotion stuff is flexible, but not right after a book comes out. The HBO ones he can't get out of, but once the series was a few years in, he could step back with their blessing, and they also were kind of hoping I think to get the sixth book in time. But they cut him off of another year for that because Crows and Dragons-ish was supposed to be two seasons originally and they decided to make it one season (cutting a whole lot. Although they also just have mixed the books a fair amount in moving stuff around.) But it really doesn't matter since the t.v. show is separate from the books. (Remember, the book series was supposed to be unfilmable.) But promotional stuff is in fact required and does take up a lot of time the bigger you are. When you're very big, then you can also negotiate some stuff, as Martin has, but in 2011 and 2012, it was a delay for Winter.

And of course I know he hasn't got "oodles" to finish, but that's another reason why I wonder what the hold-up is.

He isn't making widgets. And it's a written novel from one brain, rather than the collaborative mediums like comics, games and film/t.v.

I know that "I hope" is different than "I will" but I wish, if he really wasn't sure, he had stuck to his code of silence that he implemented when he realized his lag on ADwD was getting out of hand.

Yeah, that's been chewed ad nauseam. No matter which way he tries it, apparently it is wrong. In this case, he broke his code of silence because of people's questions re the television series. But let's figure that into the calculations then. If he saw the light at the end of the tunnel in 2015, still thought he might get there in early 2016, now has run into a problem that means end of 2016, early 2017, that's an added valuation of two years. 2015 would have been the four year average from the full run of the series and at one point, George thought he would make that. So that would mean that if he finishes in early 2017, that would be six years, which means that Spring would come out in 2023. (Of course, all this is silly because each book has a completely different set of factors and development and life effects for George. You can't really get an average, especially as he overlaps. But it's suppose to be a joke calculation.)

And as heretical as it even feels to type this, I almost appreciate the series more.

It's not heretical. You just like the t.v. show better. So watch the t.v. show and stop worrying about the books. That they've added a new season is weird, but maybe HBO begged. And in three years, you'll be done. Frankly, I thought all the whining about George would die off with the t.v. show firmly established as a hit that would therefore get the full series coverage. I figured all the folks yelling at George would go watch the t.v. show and no longer care about the books and this would no longer be a real issue past 2013.

But apparently it is, as the t.v. series' plan to now end in 2018 is still not enough. So calculations can be anything you like. Martin has been secretly writing both books in full and they will come out in 2017, 2018 respectively. Martin has secretly been collaborating with alien visitors, requiring him at times to be off planet. So he won't actually finish the series until 2027. And then the aliens will take him away. Or....