What is the future of print technology?

I once picked up a copy of Irvine Welsh's Filth and was astonished by the layout, which seemed to be one layer of text superimposed over a different page as though the middle had been torn out and the text below was showing through. How he managed to convince his publisher to go with that I can't imagine.
 
This encapsulates the problem that might soon be faced by authors. In an ocean of millions of authors unregulated by editors, who do you choose?

Yes, this is one side of the problem.

But I think the worse problem we have now is that publishers are taking on very few new authors and not taking many chances. So many excellent authors are not able to get published.

Removing the barriers to publishing may help them find their audience, but they may also get lost in a deluge of mediocre stories.

An author will have to either hire a marketer or learn how to market online to reach a significant audience.
 
Yes, this is one side of the problem.

But I think the worse problem we have now is that publishers are taking on very few new authors and not taking many chances. So many excellent authors are not able to get published.

It's not "now" that publishers are taking on very few new authors. Publishers always take on very few new authors. And when there's a recession and economic downturn that requires a recovery, they take on even fewer new authors. (But there are more small and medium publishers who also do some nice stuff than there were before. There are a lot more opportunities to publish SFFH now, for instance.)

The "problem," if there is one, is that there are a lot more people wanting to be fiction authors than before, and for SFFH, that there are a lot more people who want to publish in the category markets than did before, for which we can blame Hollywood and J.K. Rowling. (Which is funny since the majority of the population doesn't read, though more people read now than did in the past.) And so self-publishing at least lets people put stuff out there where some folk may find it.

But it's not a deluge that will bury authors because fiction authors don't directly compete with each other and there's no limit to how many books can be produced. It's not the number of authors that makes it difficult for an author to get noticed. It's simply that it's hard for any author to get noticed, to raise awareness, and attract enough readers who will hopefully then spread good word of mouth. And you can hire a market person if you have the money and it may help get you some attention or it may not. Fiction readers are marketing resistant but generally open to trying things, and word of mouth -- which you can seek out but can't really rig for written fiction -- is the number one selling factor. Distribution is a big factor, and there publishers have the advantage, the bigger they are the more advantage, because they can get books in stores and bookstores throughout their countries and internationally. But the Net has helped with distribution. With e-books, it's still a very tiny market, but self-published authors can get onto Amazon and other vendors who will sell e-books, or they can potentially set up their own site to sell them.

The big problem is that a lot of authors, whether they are working with a press or going it alone, think it should be a lot easier to get an audience, but it's not easy and it's not predictable.
 
Good points, Kat. But a lot of beginning writers don't want to believe them. Quick and easy success is a dream few will give up easily. So many writers come up with conspiracy theories to explain why they don't become instant best-selling authors.
 
But I think the worse problem we have now is that publishers are taking on very few new authors and not taking many chances. So many excellent authors are not able to get published.

Go out to Fictionwise.com and look at what is selling for SF and Fantasy. There are a BUNCH of small independent presses thriving right now, and most of them are open to excellent authors. If a good writer is not being published today, it is not through any fault of the industry.

That said, it is harder than hell to gain an audience for most folks as Kat points out. Few (less than ten percent?) authors ever hit the Rich And Famous contract. Most can not make a living from writing alone.

In my opinion, most conspiracy theories would vanish if writers realized two things.

1. Publishing is a business - not a benevolent patron bent on furthering the career of writers. The word "fair" is not part of a business portfolio. Profit is. So is eliminating the competition. Capitalism...gotta love it.

2. A business consists of people, not machines nor radiant beings bathed in the Light of Perfect Judgment. They can be swayed by markets and peer pressure. They have bosses. They can be even-handed or elitist jerks - just like a lot of writers.

Kerry
 
Good points, Kat. But a lot of beginning writers don't want to believe them. Quick and easy success is a dream few will give up easily. So many writers come up with conspiracy theories to explain why they don't become instant best-selling authors.

Authors who write for success are only fooling themselves, they aren't true to the art, more concerned about money and daydreaming about hopes of becoming a famous celebrity. The true author writes to progress art.
 
kmtolan said:
So is eliminating the competition.

Again, the fiction market is a symbiotic market, not a competitive one. I'm not saying publishers don't compete for big name authors -- that's what book auctions are for. But they aren't trying to eliminate one another out of the market. They sell books to each other for paperback reprinting (though a bit less these days when paperback and hardcover printings are more consolidated through multiple imprints.) For the large presses, healthy small presses are first off a sign of a solid, developing market for all and second a source for reprint opportunities as a business partner. Self-published authors are largely irrelevant to retail sales operations and if an author sells well on his own, it's again a source for reprint. Authors can't eliminate each other.

And while publishers are not benevolent patrons, they aren't cold-hearted mercantiles about fiction either. Fiction is a low money, small industry and book publishing has some intellectual status, but not a lot of business status. The people in it therefore are generally committed folk, looking to find and promote what they feel are good, interesting fiction works in a variety of types, and they will lose money on titles and accept slow growth on the hope that authors will eventually deliver audiences of decent size. In a bad economy, expectations get higher and timelines get shorter, but fiction publishing juggles its bestsellers (and odd things like celebrity novels,) to pay for taking chances on new people and mid-list authors.

That's one of the big issues about the development of the e-book market. The print system with its returns means that the publishers get upfront money on books ordered from vendors which then pays for the expenses of previous books and pays the authors advances against royalties, allowing them to sign up new works. It gives them capital to work with, which helps finance authors. But e-books have no advance gross orders. It's a straight one order, one sale transaction. Which means there's no cash to cover expenses, staff and author advances until after the lengthy time in which sales are accounted for and processed -- six months to a year, plus however many years it takes to produce and schedule the books before that. So the e-book market has to have a different revenue system than print books do and right now is very costly. Eventually, bulk e-book sales may be such that enough cash is coming in to fund everything, but that's not in place yet.

My suspicion, and I'm not sure of this yet, but my suspicion is that print and electronic print are going to merge, and that we are going to get things like the print books with microchips in the spine or print and hologram graphics together and multimedia packages. Electricity has a lot of limits when it comes to written text and long stories, and so print continues to play a role.
 
My suspicion, and I'm not sure of this yet, but my suspicion is that print and electronic print are going to merge, and that we are going to get things like the print books with microchips in the spine or print and hologram graphics together and multimedia packages.

Yes! :D Imagine a copy of Hitchhiker's Guide To The Galaxy that more closely resembles the Hitchhiker's Guide.
 
Authors who write for success are only fooling themselves, they aren't true to the art, more concerned about money and daydreaming about hopes of becoming a famous celebrity. The true author writes to progress art.

In the interest of a good argument, I'm going to disagree with this statement - to a point.

While I certainly don't want to see a bunch of Rowling or Meyer ripoffs, I also believe that all authors strive for success.

My life goal is to write and eventually become self-sufficient through my books. This would inevitably mean success, and money - at least enough to live off and write full time. Does this mean I'm fooling myself, or not progressing the art?
 
All artists wish to become self sufficient as anyone wishes to make a living doing what they want to do. However, this isn't the motivation for the true artist. If an artist follows their craft out of love and dedication, then everything else will fall into place. They will love what they write and be constantly happy, whether or not they make money off of it. When they die, they can't take any of their money with them anyways.
 
In the interest of a good argument, I'm going to disagree with this statement - to a point.

While I certainly don't want to see a bunch of Rowling or Meyer ripoffs, I also believe that all authors strive for success.

My life goal is to write and eventually become self-sufficient through my books. This would inevitably mean success, and money - at least enough to live off and write full time. Does this mean I'm fooling myself, or not progressing the art?


It's a matter of being professional, of developing the ability to turn out top notch work though you're not inspired or challenged to do so. Some of my favorite writers in the SF field aren't brilliant, they'll never write that one classic that will be remembered and read for generations; but they're damn good and they write consistantly good stories and do it with some passion.
You can't ignore the marketplace or afford to be self indulgent... although it worked for Robert Jordan. :)
 
My life goal is to write and eventually become self-sufficient through my books. This would inevitably mean success, and money - at least enough to live off and write full time. Does this mean I'm fooling myself, or not progressing the art?

You're fooling yourself as long as you think of writing as art. Start thinking of it as entertainment. People read to be entertained. Books are cheap enough but what you are really competing for is your readers' time. There's all sorts of other entertainment out three; film, TV, video games and your book has to compete (and win) the time of your readers to read your book.
 
The people in it therefore are generally committed folk, looking to find and promote what they feel are good, interesting fiction works in a variety of types, and they will lose money on titles and accept slow growth on the hope that authors will eventually deliver audiences of decent size. In a bad economy, expectations get higher and timelines get shorter, but fiction publishing juggles its bestsellers (and odd things like celebrity novels,) to pay for taking chances on new people and mid-list authors.

Maybe a few decades ago this was the case, but one has to wonder with all the talk going around how much of it is not just talk. Do I dismiss all the horror stories I hear at panels? Pretend Black Wednesday never happened? Editors being usurped by marketing departments. Quality people being cast out purely on a monetary basis. Establishment of a "best seller" model at the cost of the mid-list. All the figment of a lot of imaginations?

I am not saying that the world you paint doesn't exist in some measure - but my impression that you are trying to whitewash the entire industry with this brush is, for me, about as unrealistic as someone claiming everything is a flat-out conspiracy. Writers entering this market need to understand that this is a business arena - not the Rock Candy mountain. It is a gray world - neither white nor black. That is all the point I am trying to make here.

Kerry
 
You're fooling yourself as long as you think of writing as art. Start thinking of it as entertainment. People read to be entertained. Books are cheap enough but what you are really competing for is your readers' time. There's all sorts of other entertainment out three; film, TV, video games and your book has to compete (and win) the time of your readers to read your book.

Writing is art, this is indisputable. Would you rather be Miles Davis or Souljaboy? Because you know music is cheap and what you're really competing for is your listener's time. :rolleyes:

It's not a competition. It's not about trying to be successful to make money. It's not about simply entertaining people. It's about the art of writing, the love for the craft. It's about making great work that will change lives and influence artists, writers, and thinkers for years to come.

I really detest this business attitude so many writers have. It's similar to music groups that jump on the bandwagon to whatever scene is making money, all in hopes of being successful.

I write, make music, and make art to ease the miseries of others and to promote peace. I make art because I love to. I make art because it's always fun.

When a writer isn't having fun and all they're concerned about is pumping out a book to make cash from their publisher, that writer needs to ask themselves: What am I writing for?
 
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Maybe a few decades ago this was the case, but one has to wonder with all the talk going around how much of it is not just talk. Do I dismiss all the horror stories I hear at panels? Pretend Black Wednesday never happened? Editors being usurped by marketing departments. Quality people being cast out purely on a monetary basis. Establishment of a "best seller" model at the cost of the mid-list. All the figment of a lot of imaginations?

I am not saying that the world you paint doesn't exist in some measure - but my impression that you are trying to whitewash the entire industry with this brush is, for me, about as unrealistic as someone claiming everything is a flat-out conspiracy. Writers entering this market need to understand that this is a business arena - not the Rock Candy mountain. It is a gray world - neither white nor black. That is all the point I am trying to make here.

Kerry

I agree that it's a grey world, which is why I was pointing out that it wasn't black. :) The problem here is that people seem to have a deep need to believe in apocalypses -- print will die, publishers will die, the publishing industry is ruined, the increase in on-line self-publishing ruins fiction publishing, e-book prices are too high and this spells doom, big publishers are trying to crush small presses, etc. In reality, normal business practices and negotiations are occurring with a lot of prospects for potential growth. These often worry people and they often should -- it's sometimes people's jobs on the line. Authors cannot take for granted that the agents who work for them or the editors who work with them are going to take care of them or do a great job. They have to keep an eye out and take practical steps.

But that means having an understanding that book publishing, particularly fiction publishing, is a business of both art and profit, that it is not a zero sum game, that it relies on subjective assessments and speculative investments, not absolutes and guarantees, and that authors' editors are not out to get them. It requires understanding of how books are sold, not constantly trying to turn books into music CD's or movies or games or clothes or some other industry that does not operate in at all the same way or have the same parameters.

1) Black Wednesday, or more accurately, several months of lay-offs in trade and educational publishing were frightening, but entirely expected and not nearly as bad as it could have been, given the disasters going on in bookselling at the time and that it was the worst recession since the Great Depression. When there is a sharp economic downturn -- and we've had quite a few the last thirty years -- they will fire staff. And they usually do it the same way they did this time -- liquidating and consolidating imprints and operations. (The good news -- they are less likely to send those jobs over to India than other industries and they fire far fewer people than other industries.) So it was not a new apocalypse. It was the same difficulty as in the past.

Over time, publishing has been unwisely reducing staff in the economic downturns and making remaining staff do twice as much work, especially in editorial where editors have less time to edit, as a cost cutting measure. And that's a problem, but it's a problem that wasn't going to get solved by the recession. Oddly enough, e-publishing is now helping push things the other way because they need to hire staff to manage and handle the electronic formats. That is why the e-book market cannot instantly spring into massive operation -- because they did not have that staff and that kind of business operation in place and have now been building it these last three years. The recession set everything back, but now it is slowly moving forward again.

2) Editors being usurped by marketing departments -- it depends on what you mean by usurped. The marketing people basically run the place when it comes to the business side and always have. The editorial people have never been in charge of the publishers. The top executives almost always come from marketing, not editorial. But marketing usually lets editorial do their thing of finding the books. Where marketing gets bossy is non-fiction -- which is the main income provider of the publishers. All non-fiction acquisitions get run past the marketing people because non-fiction is a competitive marketplace for authors, because non-fiction is far more dependent on marketing and can be more effectively sold through marketing. Non-fiction is about providing information.

For fiction, marketing doesn't usually get consulted about new titles, but will sometimes put in requests -- our romance titles are selling, buy more romance please, stuff like that. And when it comes to an established author, marketing may weigh in on the sales record. It used to be a lot harder for publishers to get sales information about books published by other publishers. Now it's easier, which means that those sales records can have a bigger effect on acquisitions. But it's still editorial that goes out and finds the fiction and decides which ones to fight for and invest in. Marketing doesn't really care about fiction -- not in the way it does about non-fiction -- enough to really get involved.

3) Quality people being cast out purely on a monetary basis. Establishment of a "best seller" model at the cost of the mid-list. -- People are never dumped on a purely monetary basis. If they were, publishing would be much more efficient. And publishers have always been hunting for bestsellers, again not a new thing. Fifteen years ago, Simon & Schuster brought in a consultant who concluded that the best thing the publisher could do to grow at the rate the corporation wanted was to only publish bestsellers. After the consultant left, the staff fell down laughing because while it would indeed be nice to publish only bestsellers, nobody can accurately predict to do that. Plus, there are several kinds of bestsellers, including long-term backlist bestsellers, not as flashy but way more valuable. And the hunt for bestsellers has to include variety in fiction -- they must cover a broad spectrum from university friendly contemporary drama to romance and have different styles in every area to cover the spread of readers. When you view fiction readers as monochrome and predictable, then you're not paying attention to the realities of the market.

Fiction publishing is gambling. (Non-fiction is slightly less risky gambling.) You invest in an author, who may very well leave you later, and you may lose money for awhile or not make a lot of money and then may make more money. What you want is a fast burn bestseller who right away makes you money and who then keeps having bestsellers (not a guarantee,) but the reality is that most sales success comes from slow burn. So they'll gamble, but on who and for how long is always in flux and depends on individual titles. When there is a sharp economic downturn, again, such as the worst recession ever, mid-list authors lose the time to get their audience numbers up to the next sales bracket because the publisher is hemorrhagging money as the advance cash flow dries up from the booksellers, and some of the mid-list authors get dumped. Some of those get picked up by other houses, some don't. Sometimes a publisher completely screws it up, as Night Shade did with Liz Williams' Inspector Chen series -- and that was a bestseller.

Despite the problems mid-list authors are facing today because of the economy and lack of vendors, it was way worse in the 1990's when the wholesale market began its collapse and went from like 600 companies to six, with vendor outlets drying up. That's when fiction, which was very dependent on paperbacks in wholesale distribution, took enormous blows to sales. They dropped so many mid-list mystery authors then, for example, it was a wonder they had any left. But it built back up. And that's why romance invested heavily in paranormal romance -- they took a blow and were trying to build up sales. And that paid off for that sector. So again a reality that authors have to deal with, yes, but not new, not the apocalypse.

Large publishers don't want to wipe out small publishers. They quite often want to buy them if they're successful, but it's not like the booksellers. For example, Jaimy Gordon's novel Lord of Misrule won the National Book Award. It was published by smaller press McPherson. Even before Gordon won the award, McPherson sold paperback rights to Vintage and Vintage bought the rights to Gordon's next book from the author. McPherson isn't mad about this at all. They own the license to the award-winning novel and get half of all the money Vintage makes off of it and Vintage can sell it in much larger numbers with more distribution. The hardcover edition of McPherson's is also flying off the shelves. Academia will supply a steady market for both hc and paperback. McPherson can now fund a number of its other authors plus attract new ones with a higher profile. It can sell other books on its list to Vintage for reprint. Its business has grown at least 10% if not more. And Vintage is happy to have a working relationship with McPherson, which might supply them with another NBA winner. It's pretty much a win for everyone and helps grow the market in general.

No one with any brains would want to work in book publishing. You get paid crap money, the hours are long, with few perks, everyone is mad at you all the time and don't thank you much when you do something right. You have minimal status, celebrities have no interest in you, there's no job security, etc. Even magazines, facing their worst time ever, are way cooler, richer, more peaceful places to work. And there's little incentive for people to try and become fiction authors. The odds of making money at it are like a lottery and the experience is akin to entering a wind tunnel. But people do it because they do have a commitment to it. And that's part of the business along with the profit-making business stuff.

If you're hearing stuff at conferences and you're concerned about it, maybe we should make a thread for discussion of it (though we've touched on some of these issues in the past.) There are a lot of horror stories; I can give you lots of them. But you have to have context to them.

The big issue that authors face is always distribution. But that seems to be the issue authors are least interested in talking about and learning about.
 
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(tips hat) Excellent response, Kat, and something to take to the convention discussions.

Kerry
 
How kind of you to say excellent response instead of "thanks for another long-winded, pedantic rant, KatG." :)
 
SFF writer Kristine Kathryn Rusch has been doing a series of blog posts called The Business of Publishing. I haven't read them all and might not agree with everything she says, but she just did one on bookstores that was interesting:

http://kriswrites.com/2010/11/25/the-business-rusch-bookstores-changing-times-part-six/

And here are some parts that are relevant for what we've been discussing:

Some of this loss of variety happened as the entire book distribution system collapsed. In the late 1990s, large grocery chains which carried books in addition to produce and canned goods got tired of receiving hundreds of invoices from their book suppliers all over the country. Back then, books got delivered to all of the book outlets from grocery stores to chain bookstores via regional book distributors—people who knew that people in Iowa loved high fantasy novels and people in Idaho preferred romance novels. Each regional book distributor was an independent. The distributor for mid-Willamette Valley in Oregon lived just down the driveway from us.

Safeway, Albertsons, and the other national chains decided to hold a competition. The distributor who could handle their volume the best and the most efficiently got their business. For a few months, book distribution became a cutthroat business, and by the end, only a dozen or so distributors out of hundreds survived. When you hear the myth that only bestsellers sell to readers, that bit of conventional wisdom comes from this period. During the great upheaval, only bestsellers did sell, because those were the only books guaranteed to appeal to readers all over America.

So again, when I keep talking about the Great Paperback Depression, which had a major effect on fiction retail publishing, including very much so SFF, I'm not making it up. :)

And:

But back to the bookstore. Will ordering books online—both in e-book format and in regular format—destroy the bookstores the way that the rise of the superstores nearly destroyed the independents?

Many pundits think so. And they might be right about the superstores. Borders teeters on the brink of bankruptcy, constantly searching for a way to survive. Barnes & Noble is scrambling to provide more than just a book in its shopping experience. It has in-store specials for Nook owners. It has always had the coffee shop, which in some stores has become a lunch place as well. In many of its stores, B&N now offers book-related items, toys, pillows, mugs as another way to bring in customers.

But for the first time in years, the number of independent bookstores has increased rather than decreased. And considering that we’re still in the thick of a recession, that’s pretty amazing.

Brick-and-mortar bookstores now have to provide an experience that’s different than one you can get online. Independents can’t offer the discounts that the chains get on bestsellers—although the American Booksellers Association, in conjunction with a number of publishers, is working to change that. But bestsellers are everywhere. You can buy the latest Stephen King or Nora Roberts at Safeway or Target or Wal-Mart as well as at the independents or B&N. But you can’t get the latest Kristine Kathryn Rusch book in all of those places, nor can you get the most definitive history of the region you’re visiting.

For those books, you need to go to a bookstore.

Independents are beginning to realize this. They’re establishing that local niche that has been missing for years. Even though the regional book distributors are gone, ordering for the independents has become easier. They can order online through their Baker & Taylor or Ingram’s account.
Now North by Northwest Books can carry a large Oregon coast section. 57th Street Books can offer Chicago-specific books, or, even better, books that specialize in the Hyde Park neighborhood where the store is located.
A lot of bookstores now do special orders for customers all over the world. And the bookstore owners become an arbiter of taste—if the owner of Poison Pen in Phoenix likes a mystery novel, then chances are half of her customers will like that book as well.

Bookstores have started to realize that they need to provide a unique experience, from nifty book signings to readings to poetry slams. They also have started to realize that they need to offer books not easily found online or in the chains. And many bookstore owners, who have gotten into this business because they love to read, really enjoy sharing the books that have pleased them over the years. These booksellers still hand-sell, and that’s going to become more and more important as the years go on.

And this is yet another look at how the print market is not going to disappear -- it's going to shift and work in different ways with technology.
 
Simpletons see simple futures

Thanks, Kat, for your "long-winded" essays. I always read them carefully and incorporate the knowledge in them in my understanding of the publishing industry. I look forward to many more of them.

For science fiction writers there is an important lesson in your comments sparked by Kristine Kathryn Rusch's blog posts - THE FUTURE WILL NOT BE SIMPLE.

Print and electronic publishing are symbiotic as well as competing. The future will bring shifts in their relationships, but it will be a long time before print publishing dies. Before it does it will morph in many and surprising ways.

Newbie (and some "oldie") SF writers make the mistake of taking any trend to simplistic extremes. The history of science and technology shows the opposite - the future will be more complicated than the past. Anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot, unable or unwilling to look at the big picture and to benefit from history.
 

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